The Same Message From Every Direction

Yesterday I wrote about Australia’s extraordinarily warm start to winter. The response was strong, perhaps because readers could see the evidence for themselves. Ski fields opening with little or no snow. Temperatures feel more like autumn or spring than winter.

People are noticing that something seems off. Some readers described what they’re observing as “spooky”. Many shared observations from their own backyards. Several people reported spring flowers already blooming. In my own garden, plants that normally wait until August or September seem to think spring has already arrived. Others commented that the ocean along the NSW South Coast still feels more like late summer than winter. The weekend before last, I was at Murramarang National Park and dozens of people were swimming and sunbathing. In June.

None of these observations prove climate change on their own. But they’re the sorts of things people notice when familiar seasonal patterns start to shift. They’re reminders that climate change isn’t only measured by satellites, ocean buoys and scientific graphs. It’s increasingly being observed in our gardens, on our beaches and in our everyday lives.

And here’s the thing. At the same time, a series of climate indicators from around the world are also sending out similar signals. What strikes me is not any one record in isolation. It’s how many different parts of the climate system are telling a remarkably similar story.

In Antarctica, an area of winter sea ice roughly the size of France is missing. This is in June, when Antarctic sea ice should normally be expanding towards its winter maximum. At the same time, temperatures in parts of Antarctic have reportedly reached more than 20°C above average.

Meanwhile, at the other pole, satellite data shows Arctic sea ice has fallen to a new record low. On 12 June, sea ice extent was 147,000 square kilometres below the previous record for that date - an area larger than Greece. The Arctic has long been one of the clearest indicators of a warming climate, but the extent to which 2026 is tracking below previous years is really starting to concern many scientists.

And between the two poles, the tropical Pacific is also behaving off the charts. Climate scientist Elliott Jacobson recently highlighted that sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region – one of the key areas used to monitor El Niño conditions – are the warmest on record for this time of year. They are three standard deviations warmer than average for this time of year. In statistical terms, a value three standard deviations from average is something that occurs less than one per cent of the time, highlighting just how unusual these Pacific ocean temperatures are.

None of these observations prove anything new by themselves. Scientists have been documenting climate change for decades. Weather and ocean systems also have natural variability, and individual records will always come and go. But what should be ringing alarm bells is the broader pattern.

The Arctic, Antarctica, the tropical Pacific and Australia’s climate are part of a global climate system but also influenced by different ocean currents, atmospheric processes and feedback mechanisms. Yet all of them are currently pointing in the same direction. It’s becoming increasingly difficult to view unusual events in isolation when so many indicators are simultaneously producing extraordinary results.

I was reminded of a graph recently shared by climate scientist Zeke Hausfather. What struck me was not the total amount of warming, but the rate at which it has occurred. The first half of global warming since the Industrial Revolution began took around 148 years. The second half took just 27. When 85 per cent of the time produced only half the warming, and the final 15 per cent produced the other half, it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that we have an acceleration problem.

This is where I think Australia’s winter story becomes important. When we hear about ice in Antarctica or ocean temperatures in the Pacific, it can feel distant and abstract. Most of us will never visit Antarctica. Few Australians spend much time thinking about conditions in the Niño 3.4 region of the tropical Pacific. But we do understand seasons. We notice when winter doesn’t feel like winter. We notice when ski fields have no snow. We notice when familiar patterns start changing.

Those local observations matter because they help connect us to the bigger picture. The unusual winter we’re experiencing is not separate from what is happening elsewhere. It’s part of the same planetary system.

For years, climate change has often been framed as something that will happen in the future. Increasingly, that framing feels outdated. The more relevant question may no longer be whether climate change is occurring, but how quickly the changes are unfolding and how well our political, economic and social systems are prepared to respond.

If you’re worried about climate collapse like I am, check out my blog on ten things you can actually do.