“No one is immune”: Australia’s climate risk report is a siren, not a strategy

Today the Albanese Government finally released Australia’s first National Climate Risk Assessment. It’s late, and it’s bleak. After years of promises and process, we’ve been handed a document that says plainly what all of us on the front line know: climate impacts are cascading, compounding and accelerating. And every system we rely on is in the firing line.

What the report says - in numbers that should end the spin

• Heat deaths are set to explode. Under the highly likely scenario of a 3 °C world this Century, heatwave deaths in Sydney could rise by well over 400%. Marine heatwaves could persist for 200 days each year, and Australia will endure close to 20 extreme heatwave days annually. This isn’t a modelling curiosity; it’s a health system and workforce crisis.

• Coasts take a pounding. With warming that drives over half a metre of sea-level rise this Century, Australia will see close to 200 days of extra coastal flooding each year. This will erode more suburbs, roads, railway lines and beaches, and hammer property values.

• The bill is eye-watering. Headlines from the government’s own briefings point to $500 billion in property value losses by 2050, $40 billion a year in disaster recovery costs, and more than 1.5 million people exposed to serious flood risks. These numbers are big enough to move markets and mortgage stress.

• Cascading risks hit everywhere. No community is “safe”. Northern Australia, remote communities and the outer suburbs, which often have lower incomes and less insurance cover, are singled out as particularly vulnerable to the overlapping extremes.

This is the government’s own assessment. It’s not an activist report. It arrives alongside a new National Adaptation Plan, which reads like a framework for coordination rather than a funding line-item that matches the risks. It’s a plan without money or timelines. It’s not much more than a media release opportunity.

The Australian reality behind the graphs

“Cascading, compounding, concurrent” sounds clinical until you sit with what it means:

• Health: More deadly heat, smoke, and disease, pushing hospitals and ambulances to breaking point during overlapping events.

• Economy and insurance: Uninsurability spreads; premiums spike; asset values slide; supply chains fracture. This is mortgage risk, sovereign risk and intergenerational inequality rolled together.

• Country and culture: First Nations communities, especially in the North and across remote homelands, face massive risks to health, housing, sacred places and livelihoods.

The Climate Change Authority has just reminded us that every $1 invested in adaptation saves up to $11 in recovery costs. Waiting is the most expensive option on offer. But that’s what our government keeps doing.

From greenwashing to governing: what “real action” could look like

Australia doesn’t lack for glossy policies and PDFs. We lack decisions that remove tonnes of CO2 from the atmosphere and save lives. Here’s what would prove the penny has dropped:

1. Lock in an economy-wide 2035 target that actually matches the risk. Credible analysis and community leaders are pushing for much steeper cuts this decade and next. A target in the low-60s will not put us on a path that avoids the 3 °C world the government’s own report models. The 2035 target needs to be ambitious, and with sectoral carbon budgets, interim checkpoints and a legislated “ratchet” so missed milestones trigger automatic tightening.

2. Stop adding fuel to the fire. Announce a moratorium on new coal and gas approvals and extensions. Tighten the Safeguard Mechanism so aggregate industrial emissions fall in absolute terms, not just “offset” on paper. Close methane loopholes with mandatory measurement and penalties. (If the risk report says the house is on fire, you don’t open another petrol station in the living room.)

3. Supercharge electrification - because efficiency is our biggest “new” resource. National programs to electrify homes, small business and transport (heat pumps, induction, EVs, work and apartment charging) cut bills and emissions together. Tie rebates to low-income households and to remote/regional roll-outs that cut diesel dependence.

4. Make adaptation funding match the threat. Create a permanent, scaled-up Disaster Ready Fund with a 10-year pipeline, weighted to First Nations-led projects and places at highest risk. Tie Commonwealth dollars to resilience standards for rebuilds so we don’t pay to recreate yesterday’s vulnerabilities.

5. Plan for managed retreat with dignity. Establish a national framework (with state buy-in) for voluntary buy-backs, relocation pathways, and place-based cultural heritage protection. The report’s sea-level and flood projections make retreating unavoidable; the only question left is whether we do it fairly.

6. Measure what matters. Publish an honest annual Climate Risk & Resilience Statement with quantifiable indicators: heat deaths avoided, homes shifted from high- to lower-risk categories, days of service disruption avoided, emissions actually cut in each sector, and progress on Nature-led adaptation.

Politics is the art of the possible. Leadership is the art of making more possible.

Anthony Albanese will soon announce Australia’s 2035 target and he’ll be keen to spruik its climate bona fides. Good, because his own risk assessment reads like a legal brief for acting much faster: “no community is immune”, impacts are “cascading and compounding”, and delay multiplies damage. What happens next will show whether this report was a siren - or just more spin dressed up as strategy.

Australia can still choose the safer path: electrify everything, end new fossil expansion, invest in resilience with First Nations, and measure success in fewer funerals, fewer evacuations, fewer families priced out by premiums. That’s not radical. That’s responsible government.

Photo from the report.