Global Warming is Accelerating and Tracking at Worst-Case Scenarios

One of the world’s most respected climate scientists, Professor Stefan Rahmstorf, recently released a sobering new study - and everyone should read it.

Rahmstorf, a lead author of past IPCC reports and a physicist at the Potsdam Institute, is renowned for his calm, evidence-based communication. I remember during my time representing Australia in the UN climate negotiations, he was someone every negotiator wanted to meet with and listen to. So when he says global warming has “accelerated significantly”, we should pay close attention. His new paper, published on Research Square, finds that the rate of warming has doubled since the year 2000, reaching the fastest pace in over two thousand years of reconstructed climate history.

Let that sink in: the Earth is now heating at 0.36°C per decade, compared to about 0.18°C per decade from 1970–2000. It’s not a gentle slope anymore. It’s a cliff.

And it’s not just surface temperature. Ocean heat content - the best measure of how much excess energy the Earth is absorbing - is surging at record levels. The oceans, which to date have taken up around 90% of excess heat, are telling us clearly: we are trapping more energy in the climate system than ever before.

Rahmstorf also highlights that warming is now tracking at the worst-case scenarios from climate models - running even hotter than most official projections. If we don’t change course now, we’ll not only breach the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit permanently in coming years - we’ll hurtle past it, straight into dangerous and irreversible territory.

There’s no excuse for this. We know what’s causing it. We’ve known for decades.

Coal, oil, and gas are the drivers of this emergency. Yet even now, in 2025, governments like Australia’s continue approving new fossil fuel projects. This isn’t just negligent - it’s suicidal. Every tonne of carbon we release now locks in more heat, more disruption, more cost, and more suffering for our kids and grandkids.

Rahmstorf’s findings are a scientific SOS. They show that we no longer have the luxury of “transitioning slowly” or “waiting for technology to catch up.” The technology is here. The solutions are here. The barrier is political will - and the stranglehold of fossil fuel interests on our democracy.

The window for a safe planet is closing rapidly. Every decision we make must be measured against this new, urgent reality.

That means:

• No new coal or gas approvals - anywhere, ever again.

• Phasing out existing fossil fuel infrastructure as fast as humanly possible.

• Massive investments in electrification, efficiency, and community resilience.

• Real leadership that puts people and planet ahead of profits and polluters.

As Professor Rahmstorf says, “This is not just a warning. It’s a red alert.” We must treat it that way. And we must act like the future depends on it - because it does.