Earth’s Energy Imbalance: The Lid on the Pot
- Gregory Andrews
- 4 hours ago
- 3 min read
Most people talk “temperature” when discussing climate change. It’s the headline statistic because it is easy to understand. But there is another number that matters just as much, and in some ways more. It is called Earth’s Energy Imbalance, or EEI.
If you have never heard of EEI, don’t worry, you’re not alone. But read one because it’s one of the cleanest ways to explain why the last couple of years have felt like the climate system has shifted up a gear.
What EEI actually means
Earth is constantly doing a simple trade. Sunlight comes in. Some is reflected straight back to space by clouds, ice, and bright surfaces. The rest is absorbed, warming the land and ocean. Then the Earth tries to shed that heat by sending energy back out into space as infrared radiation.
EEI is the gap between what comes in and what goes out.
If more energy is coming in than going out, EEI is positive. That means the Earth system is gaining heat. Not metaphorically, but literally. This matters because global temperature is often treated as the whole story, when it is really a surface symptom. EEI is closer to the engine room.
The lid on the pot
Everyone who wants to boil spaghetti knows that putting a lid on a pot helps it heat faster. Not because it creates extra heat. The stove does that. But because the lid changes how quickly heat escapes, so the water warms faster and boils sooner. The pot becomes more efficient at keeping heat in.
This is a good way to think about rising EEI. Greenhouse gases aren’t the stove. The Sun is. Greenhouse gases are more like the lid, because they reduce the rate at which heat can escape into space. When the “lid” gets tighter, the planet holds onto more energy. EEI rises. More heat accumulates in the system.
And yes, if the lid stays on long enough, the pot boils over.
In the climate system, “boiling over” isn’t usually one single dramatic moment. It’s the steady loading of extra heat into everything that gives us more intense marine heatwaves, heavier rainfall, harsher droughts, and faster ice loss. It is also why the oceans are so central. Most of the excess heat is going into the oceans, because water can store an enormous amount of energy. But that storage isn’t benign. It fuels stronger extremes, and it expands seawater and melts ice, raising sea levels.
Berkeley Earth’s 2025 temperature report helps pull EEI out of specialist conversation and puts it in front of ordinary readers. It has a simple explanation: EEI is a measure of how much extra energy is being trapped in the Earth system. Their figures, based on satellite observations of Earth’s energy budget, show EEI has risen sharply in recent years. That fits the lived sense many of us are having: not just “it is warming”, but “this feels like acceleration”.
Why this changes how we talk about climate
EEI forces a harder truth into the open. As long as Earth is taking in more energy than it is shedding, warming hasn’t “paused”. It’s not “done” or “overstated”. The system is still being pushed.
EEI has roughly doubled since 2005, meaning the planet is now trapping heat at about twice the rate it was only two decades ago.
This is why getting emissions down fast and ending new coal and gas projects matters so much. Not because they’re a slogan, but because that’s the pathway to taking the lid off the pot. Stabilising our climate means bringing EEI back towards zero. That requires stopping the atmospheric build-up of greenhouse gases, and ultimately reducing them.
Until then, by burning fossil fuels we’re leaving the lid on, watching the bubbles get more intense, and acting surprised when the pot starts to boil over.
If you want to see a clear explainer and the latest charts, Berkeley Earth’s Global Temperature Report for 2025 is well worth your time.
